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November 17, 2009

MORE: Louisiana battles South Carolina | Pennsylvania takes on Virginia | Ohio versus Mississippi

Dallas Jackson is the high school sports expert for RivalsHigh.com. Send him a question or comment at DallasJ@Yahoo-Inc.com and follow him at twitter.com/rivalshigh.

It's one of the biggest debates in high school sports: Which state plays the best High School Football? RivalsHigh is determined to figure it out.

But how? Should we use stats - or analysis? Actually, we're going to use both.

Here's how today's RivalsHigh Greatest State Debate matchup between Michigan and Maryland will be decided.

Step One: Raw numbers (The winning side gets a field goal)

  • Most teams in the Top 25: There has to be a reward for having some truly great teams. If the state's have the same number in the group, the state with the highest-ranked team will get the field goal. If neither has a ranked team, no points will be awarded.
  • Most teams in the Top 100: Quantity counts as much as quality. Depth helps. The state with more teams wins. Should the teams tie, the state with the most teams in the Top 50 will get the points.
  • Top recruits: How many players does the state have in the Rivals 250? Ties will be broken by number of players in the Rivals 100.

    Step Two: Analysis (The winning side gets a touchdown)

  • Depth of quality: Having good teams in your largest class is one thing, but how is the football that is played in the lower divisions?
  • Out-of-state schedule: This is a key indicator. We'll look at the state's record. But more than that, their willingness to take on the best.
  • History/intangibles: Call it the 'it' factor. Call it a gut feeling. Comparing states that don't' go head-to-head is hard, so we'll bring in all the outside information and influences we can with a special eye on past performances.

    There's 30 points on the board to be had - and it's mathematically impossible for there to be a tie. So enjoy the game and then join the debate. The competition runs through Friday.

    No. 8 Michigan HS Football
    No. 9 Maryland HS Football
    Teams in the Top 25
    Teams in the Top 25
    Total Teams: 0
    Top Team: No. 34 Sterling Heights Stevenson Titans
    Stevenson has been in a battle with a couple of other Michigan teams for that No. 1 spot. This is a very good year for Michigan football, and while there does not appear to be an elite team, there are certainly plenty of very good ones. Jason Fracassa and Carl Davis lead the squad making a run at a Division I state championship.
    Total Teams: 1
    Top Team: No. 11 DeMatha Stags
    Some may argue that DeMatha should not count for Maryland since they are not eligible for the Maryland state playoffs, but they are located in Hyattsville and that counts for this arguement. The Stags are absolutely loaded with talent and have a great coach leading the way. If they were eligible for a MD state title, this year would be a lock for them.
    DeMatha has more talent on the field on both sides of the ball, Maryland 3-0.
    Teams in the RivalsHigh 100
    Teams in the RivalsHigh 100
    Total teams ranked: 4
    With East Grand Rapids, Clarkston, and Catholic Central on the list, Michigan is well represented in the RivalsHigh 100. But if this tournament would have started last week, Michigan would have had a fifth team in the rankings and may have had a higher seed.
    Total teams ranked: 3
    Maryland, technically, has three teams ranked but two are not eligible for the playoffs in the state (DeMatha and Good Counsel) leaving Linganore as the state flag-bearer right now. Without much other top-end talent, the state gets a boost from technicalities.
    Michigan has four teams, simple math, it's now tied at 3-3.
    Players in the Rivals 250
    Players in the Rivals 250
    Total in Rivals 250: 5
    Highest: No. 52 Devin Gardner
    Michigan has one of its best classes in recent memory with a lot of high-end talent. Devin Gardner is the No. 1 dual threat quarterback nationally and has helped get Insker's season back on track. He reminds Rivals.com analyst Barry Every of Penn State signal-caller Daryll Clark or a young Jason Campbell.
    Total in Rivals 250: 8
    Highest: No. 73 Nick Forbes
    Maryland gets the benefit of DeMatha and Good Counsel in this category, too, with three of their top players coming from those schools. Nick Forbes, the highest-ranked player in the state regardless of technicalities, is the No. 2 LB in the nation. He has a lot of Panthers LB Jon Beason in him.
    Maryland takes the raw numbers, 6-3.
    Depth in-state
    Depth in-state
    Michigan has too many classes. The state drills down to Division VIII - which is double Pennsylvania! Division I is rock solid this season and so is Division II - with Lowell, Brother Rice, Inkster, Muskegon and Warren De La Salle. Division III has Orchard Lake, St. Mary's and East Grand Rapids carrying the flag. From there down, it is not pretty. Moving this state back to five classes would be perfect. Maryland, opposite of many states, is not playing their best football at the top level (4A). The best teams right now in Maryland appear to be the 3A schools. Linganore, River Hill, and Quince Orchard are all very good. Class 2A power Queen Anne County also looks solid. Single A Dunbar and Fort Hill could play up to 2A and give some teams a battle. This being said, Maryland is still a basketball state.
    This season there is no contest. Michigan is playing great football, 10-6.
    Out-of-state competition
    Out-of-state competition
    2009 Record for OOS games: 33-22
    Michigan does not have much of a reputation for playing many top-level out-of-state games. That is evident by the state total: Just 55 games. With Illinois and Ohio being resonable drives it would have been great to see more teams go out and play games. Going 19-11 against Wisconsin is okay but the marquee games did not go their way.
    2009 Record for OOS games: 88-73-1
    Maryland, like Virginia, racks up games with Washington, D.C., based teams and gets credit for out-of-state games. It went 23-16 against D.C. teams and 7-3 against Delaware teams. Maryland, like Michigan, does not travel to many away venues with its best talent. Still, being 15 games over .500 is something most any state would take.
    Neither is great on the road, but win percentage favors Michigan, 17-6.
    Intangibles
    Intangibles
    This is one of the best years of Michigan football in recent memory. There are many talented players and a lot of quarterbacks in this class. If the depth behind this class is similar, Michigan football can start to make a name nationally. Of course nothing would do more for perception than a big win (or five) out-of-state. Maryland football does not have the depth to compare this season to Michigan (which is the main point in this excercise). While the top-end player talent may be slightly better than in Michigan, the overall level of football is not quite there yet. Again, playing more quality opponents out-of-state would add to the arguement.
    Michigan football scores a big win, 24-6.

    Michigan takes this first-round contest 24-6. It better not celebrate too long.

    Michigan advances to a quarterfinal matchup tomorrow against our top seed, No. 1 Texas.

    TAKE IT TO THE BOARDS: Talk about the Greatest State Debate on the national message board!




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