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November 18, 2009

Dallas Jackson
Rivals High Senior Analyst

Dallas Jackson is the high school sports expert for RivalsHigh.com. Send him a question or comment at DallasJ@Yahoo-Inc.com and follow him at twitter.com/rivalshigh.

We know there's plenty of great football played in the South, but on the opening day of the Greatest State Debate - RivalsHigh's quest to determine the top state for high school football in the country - we learned you can't sell short an area of traditional power: The Rust Belt.

Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan all scored big opening-round victories. They joined Louisiana in today's quarterfinal round. All rolled with relatively easy victories.

  • No. 5 Louisiana beat No. 12 South Carolina, 20-10

  • No. 6 Pennsylvania topped No. 11 Virginia, 20-10

  • No. 7 Ohio trounced No. 10 Mississippi, 23-7

  • No. 8 Michigan dominated No. 9 Maryland, 24-6

    Today's play won't be as easy as the four top seeds (Texas, Florida, California and Georgia) are waiting.

    Before we get to the action, here's a quick recap of how we play.

    Step One: Raw numbers (The winning side gets a field goal)

  • Most teams in the Top 25: There has to be a reward for having some truly great teams. If the state's have the same number in the group, the state with the highest-ranked team will get the field goal. If neither has a ranked team, no points will be awarded.
  • Most teams in the Top 100: Quantity counts as much as quality. Depth helps. The state with more teams wins. Should the teams tie, the state with the most teams in the Top 50 will get the points.
  • Top recruits: How many players does the state have in the Rivals 250? Ties will be broken by number of players in the Rivals 100.

    Step Two: Analysis (The winning side gets a touchdown)

  • Depth of quality: Having good teams in your largest class is one thing, but how is the football that is played in the lower divisions?
  • Out-of-state schedule: This is a key indicator. We'll look at the state's record. But more than that, their willingness to take on the best.
  • Intangibles: Call it the 'it' factor. Call it a gut feeling. Comparing states that don't' go head-to-head is hard, so we'll bring in all the outside information and influences we can with a special eye on past performances.

    There's 30 points on the board to be had - and it's mathematically impossible for there to be a tie. So enjoy the game and then join the debate. The competition runs through Friday.

    No. 4 Georgia HS Football
    No. 5 Louisiana HS Football
    Teams in the Top 25
    Teams in the Top 25
    Total Teams: 2
    Top Team: No. 9 Grayson Rams
    Georgia is playing very good football at the highest level. Whatever team comes out of AAAAA this year will be in the Top 10 nationally. Our grade on Grayson has fluctuated throughout the season; they have been the No. 1 team for the last five weeks or so. A tough defense and a punishing running game is a Georgia staple and the Rams certainly prove to have both so far.
    Total Teams: 1
    Top Team: No. 16 Lutcher Bulldogs
    Louisiana enters the tournament with one team in the Top 25, the Lutcher Bulldogs, who check in at No. 16 nationally. The Bulldogs are the No. 1 team in 4A, which appears to be the best classification in Louisiana this season. Quarterback Gavin Webster leads a fast-paced spread offense that puts up points in bunches. While not a typical powerhouse, Luther does appear to be the best Louisiana has to offer in 2009.
    Georgia also has Lowndes in the Top 25. Peach State goes up early, 3-0.
    Teams in the RivalsHigh 100
    Teams in the RivalsHigh 100
    Total teams ranked: 7
    Georgia, at one point, had eight teams ranked, which was a state record. Currently there are seven teams from the Peach State in the Top 100 and all but one are from the AAAAA class. The state quarterfinals will be loaded; it would be anyone's bet who comes out of the semis to meet in the state finals. The lower classes are also tightly packed, including AAA and AA.
    Total teams ranked: 4
    Louisiana is finally recovering from the damaging effects of Hurricane Katrina and the state is playing very good football. The reclassification last season has made the top two classes much stronger and more competitive. Any season where John Curtis can be argued as the No. 3 team in Louisiana is actually a good thing for the state. West Monroe and nearby Neville also make the rankings.
    With seven teams in the RivalsHigh 100, Georgia opens the lead to 6-0.
    Players in the Rivals 250
    Players in the Rivals 250
    Total in Rivals 250: 18
    Highest: No. 21 Da'Rick Rogers
    Georgia is locked and loaded with nearly 20 players of the nation's 250 elite prospects as rated by Rivals.com. Da'Rick Rogers from Calhoun has drawn comparisons to Julio Jones. Rivals' Barry Every says he "appears to be a thick, muscled-up cross between an outside linebacker and a slightly shorter Calvin Johnson."
    Total in Rivals 250: 9
    Highest: No. 37 Trovon Reed
    Louisiana has nine players in the Rivals 250, led by high four-star Trovon Reed. Rivals.com analyst Barry Every compares Reed to DeSean Jackson and adds, "His speed is lighting-bolt fast and he has very good hands. He is used to having the ball in his hands and will score if hit in stride."
    Georgia sweeps the raw numbers, 9-0.
    Depth in-state
    Depth in-state
    Broken record says, Georgia AAAAA has double-digit teams that can win states. From there though it gets thin quickly. AAAA is not devoid of talent but this may be a more parity based level. Next season, depth will be great with Northside and Warner Robins moving down to AAAA. Teams in AAA such as Gainesville, Carver County, Cairo, and Flowery Branch are all very good. With Calhoun and Buford in AA, there is depth that can play to scale. Louisiana is one of the best states for depth across class lines. At the top in 5A is nationally ranked West Monroe with Hahnville not far off the pace. This season, however, the best race may be in 4A with Lutcher, Neville, Franklinton, Karr, and Salmen all playing very good football. Drilling down further, 3A has power with Redemptorist and Notre Dame, 2A has powers John Curtis and Evangel Christian and Class A has South Plaquemines.
    One of the hardest debates so far goes to the Bayou, Louisiana is on the board, 9-7.
    Out-of-state competition
    Out-of-state competition
    2009 Record for OOS games: 35-58-1
    By far the most damning number for the depth in Georgia was being almost 25 games under .500 out-of-state. Against neighboring Alabama, the state was 7-21. It was 20-29 against South Carolina (which was the No. 12 state in this debate).
    2009 Record for OOS games: 53-58
    Louisiana does not have a very good out-of-state record in 2009. In fact, the did not have a winning record against any single out-of-state opponent. Louisiana also lost its high-profile games with Shiloh Christian (AK), Sweet Water (AL), and Longview (TX).
    Supposing there has to be a winner here, Louisiana pulls ahead 14-9.
    Intangibles
    Intangibles
    Once again the assumed truth is that AAAAA Georgia is top notch, but that can not carry a state in this situation. Having limited depth and limited out-of-state success have the measuring stick coming up short. While this is not a knock on the quality at the top (the state is one of the best in the country), there needs to be more than one class doing it properly in this tourney. Louisiana is truly benefiting from having very good teams at all levels and not de-valuing the product by having too many classes. The biggest compliment a state can have is depth. Class A opponents that can play with 5A schools is a testiment to overall talent and coaching in Louisiana. That is what makes good football.
    The first "upset" of the tournament goes to Louisiana, which stuns Georgia 21-9.

    We're closing in on the Final Four.

    TAKE IT TO THE BOARDS: Talk about the Greatest State Debate on the national message board!




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