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November 18, 2009

Dallas Jackson
Rivals High Senior Analyst

Dallas Jackson is the high school sports expert for RivalsHigh.com. Send him a question or comment at DallasJ@Yahoo-Inc.com and follow him at twitter.com/rivalshigh.

We know there's plenty of great football played in the South, but on the opening day of the Greatest State Debate - RivalsHigh's quest to determine the top state for high school football in the country - we learned you can't sell short an area of traditional power: The Rust Belt.

Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan all scored big opening-round victories. They joined Louisiana in today's quarterfinal round. All rolled with relatively easy victories.

  • No. 5 Louisiana beat No. 12 South Carolina, 20-10

  • No. 6 Pennsylvania topped No. 11 Virginia, 20-10

  • No. 7 Ohio trounced No. 10 Mississippi, 23-7

  • No. 8 Michigan dominated No. 9 Maryland, 24-6

    Today's play won't be as easy as the four top seeds (Texas, Florida, California and Georgia) are waiting.

    Before we get to the action, here's a quick recap of how we play.

    Step One: Raw numbers (The winning side gets a field goal)

  • Most teams in the Top 25: There has to be a reward for having some truly great teams. If the state's have the same number in the group, the state with the highest-ranked team will get the field goal. If neither has a ranked team, no points will be awarded.
  • Most teams in the Top 100: Quantity counts as much as quality. Depth helps. The state with more teams wins. Should the teams tie, the state with the most teams in the Top 50 will get the points.
  • Top recruits: How many players does the state have in the Rivals 250? Ties will be broken by number of players in the Rivals 100.

    Step Two: Analysis (The winning side gets a touchdown)

  • Depth of quality: Having good teams in your largest class is one thing, but how is the football that is played in the lower divisions?
  • Out-of-state schedule: This is a key indicator. We'll look at the state's record. But more than that, their willingness to take on the best.
  • Intangibles: Call it the 'it' factor. Call it a gut feeling. Comparing states that don't' go head-to-head is hard, so we'll bring in all the outside information and influences we can with a special eye on past performances.

    There's 30 points on the board to be had - and it's mathematically impossible for there to be a tie. So enjoy the game and then join the debate. The competition runs through Friday.

    No. 3 California HS Football
    No. 6 Pennsylvania HS Football
    Teams in the Top 25
    Teams in the Top 25
    Total Teams: 3
    Top Team: No. 4 Huntington Beach Edison Chargers
    Our visit to California in mid-October was a power rod for Edison as the Chargers have shot up the rankings. If Edison is able to come out of the Pac-5 in the Southern Section it will be a testament to this squad. Ten games into the season, the squad is averaging a 33 to 8 victory. This is impressive in any state, but even more so with the schedule.
    Total Teams: 1
    Top Team: No. 18 Gateway Gators
    The Keystone state enters the tournament with one team in the Top 25. Stunningly, that team is the Gateway Gators. In what was supposed to be a transitional year for Gateway, the team has been able to ride the steady hand of senior QB Rob Kalkstein to an unblemished regular-season record. With the poor finish to 2008 still in their memory banks, look for Gateway to stay focused this title run.
    Would certainly enjoy the battle but having Grant and Oaks Christian pushed it to Cali, 3-0.
    Teams in the RivalsHigh 100
    Teams in the RivalsHigh 100
    Total teams ranked: 10
    California really benefits from having almost double the schools as Pennsylvania in this matchup. The state as a whole is a little down this year in terms of talented teams - especially in the southern California area, which is usually stocked with very good teams. The CIF Bowl selection will be an interesting thing to watch this year as there are plenty of "good" teams and few "great" teams this season.
    Total teams ranked: 5
    Pennsylvania was not expected to be a Top 10 state this season - and while it is not producing as many high-profile stars, the team aspect is on the rise. Gateway, Bethel Park, Woodland Hills, St. Joe's, Bishop McDevitt and North Penn would all be able to compete in any state, including California. Having far fewer teams makes raw numbers tough to come by and that hurts here.
    Sheer size continues to help California, 6-0.
    Players in the Rivals 250
    Players in the Rivals 250
    Total in Rivals 250: 37
    Highest: No. 5 Ronald Powell
    California is one of the best states for producing players. SoCal schools have some of the best athletes in the nation and teams come from all over to recruit there. Five-star defensive end Ronald Powell reminded Rivals.com analyst Barry Every of 2009 five-star player Alex Okafor (now at Texas). Every also thinks that Powell has an intimadation factor and that he should "be the guy that walks off the bus first."
    Total in Rivals 250: 8
    Highest: No. 8 Sharrif Floyd
    Pennsylvania has eight players in the nation's top 250, headlined by the No. 1 defensive tackle, Sharrif Floyd. Floyd reminds Rivals.com analyst Barry Every of Tennessee Titan player Corey Simon. He says of the 6-foot-3 player: "He gets so low and comes off the ball so hard that he can get underneath and overpower any lineman in the country. Floyd also plays with a nasty disposition and is looking to physically embarrass his opponent."
    California is pulling away, 9-0.
    Depth in-state
    Depth in-state
    There are a lot of dead spots in California, where there is no quality football to be found. But it's hard to duplicate the pockets that are playing big time ball. The Southern Section can probably put together a Top 25 that would dominate a lot of states best 25 teams. NorCal has St. Mary's, Grant and De La Salle while San Diego can claim Oceanside, Cathedral and La Costa Canyon. Pennsylvania is a Quad A heavy state most seasons - and this year certainly is no different. The best teams are in the highest level, but there is some quality depth, too. Thomas Jefferson and Manheim Central are both playing good football in 3A; Aliquippa is generally a high producer of prospects and a quality team in 2A.
    Being a big state helps but it is good at most levels. California clinches, 16-0.
    Out-of-state competition
    Out-of-state competition
    2009 Record for OOS games: 59-49
    California being just 10 games over .500 is very disappointing. California had a major boost from a 36-27 record against Nevada and a 10-5 record versus Oregon. The biggest out-of-state wins came on the same weekend with Oaks Christian and Grant defeating Skyline and Belluvue from Washington. Cali, however, also has had some very poor showings against high-level competition.
    2009 Record for OOS games: 58-54
    Pennsylvania schools have a winning record for out-of-state games - but are really making most of that ground up against a down New Jersey this year. They are 21-14 against the Garden State and three games under .500 against everyone else - including 2-9 against neighboring Ohio. The top teams didn't play many out-of-state games, which hurt Pennsylvania's chances of making a strong argument here.
    Wins over a down New Jersey are better than Nevada any year: PA is on the board, 16-7.
    Intangibles
    Intangibles
    This may be a classic bullying example, but California football has to get the edge on intangibles because of the volume of teams playing. This is not exactly a "good" year for California football but it is good enough to beat most states. The Quad A league in Pennsylvania has a solid ten teams still in the discussion, plus there are a few lower-tier teams that perform very well. The depth this season is very impressive for the state, but probably not enough to overcome the sheer volume of good teams in California.
    Size, as is often the case in football, wins out. California rolls 23-7.

    We're closing in on the Final Four.

    TAKE IT TO THE BOARDS: Talk about the Greatest State Debate on the national message board!




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