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November 18, 2009

Dallas Jackson
Rivals High Senior Analyst

Dallas Jackson is the high school sports expert for RivalsHigh.com. Send him a question or comment at DallasJ@Yahoo-Inc.com and follow him at twitter.com/rivalshigh.

We know there's plenty of great football played in the South, but on the opening day of the Greatest State Debate - RivalsHigh's quest to determine the top state for high school football in the country - we learned you can't sell short an area of traditional power: The Rust Belt.

Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan all scored big opening-round victories. They joined Louisiana in today's quarterfinal round. All rolled with relatively easy victories.

  • No. 5 Louisiana beat No. 12 South Carolina, 20-10

  • No. 6 Pennsylvania topped No. 11 Virginia, 20-10

  • No. 7 Ohio trounced No. 10 Mississippi, 23-7

  • No. 8 Michigan dominated No. 9 Maryland, 24-6

    Today's play won't be as easy as the four top seeds (Texas, Florida, California and Georgia) are waiting.

    Before we get to the action, here's a quick recap of how we play.

    Step One: Raw numbers (The winning side gets a field goal)

  • Most teams in the Top 25: There has to be a reward for having some truly great teams. If the state's have the same number in the group, the state with the highest-ranked team will get the field goal. If neither has a ranked team, no points will be awarded.
  • Most teams in the Top 100: Quantity counts as much as quality. Depth helps. The state with more teams wins. Should the teams tie, the state with the most teams in the Top 50 will get the points.
  • Top recruits: How many players does the state have in the Rivals 250? Ties will be broken by number of players in the Rivals 100.

    Step Two: Analysis (The winning side gets a touchdown)

  • Depth of quality: Having good teams in your largest class is one thing, but how is the football that is played in the lower divisions?
  • Out-of-state schedule: This is a key indicator. We'll look at the state's record. But more than that, their willingness to take on the best.
  • Intangibles: Call it the 'it' factor. Call it a gut feeling. Comparing states that don't' go head-to-head is hard, so we'll bring in all the outside information and influences we can with a special eye on past performances.

    There's 30 points on the board to be had - and it's mathematically impossible for there to be a tie. So enjoy the game and then join the debate. The competition runs through Friday.

    No. 2 Florida HS Football
    No. 6 Ohio HS Football
    Teams in the Top 25
    Teams in the Top 25
    Total Teams: 4
    Top Team: No. 1 St. Thomas Aquinas Raiders
    Aquinas is on course to win back-to-back national titles. The Raiders are very close to fielding a complete Division I football team at the high school level. Florida also has Glades Central, Lakeland, and Dwyer in the Top 25. At one point this season the state had three teams in the Top 10 before a logjam in Miami pushed both Central and Northwestern into the 40s.
    Total Teams: 1
    Top Team: No. 13 Glenville Tarblooders
    Glenville, on the heels of a huge win over local rival St. Ignatius, jumped into the Top 15 nationally. Glenville has been prone to make mistakes that cost it games, but this season it seems to be getting past that and playing very good football. If it is indeed the best team in Ohio, a Top 10 finish may be coming as Ohio is traditionally one of the best states for HS football in the country.
    Aquinas may not have anything resembling an equal this year, Florida up early 3-0.
    Teams in the RivalsHigh 100
    Teams in the RivalsHigh 100
    Total teams ranked: 11
    It is a pretty safe bet that at any point in any season the Top 10 teams in Florida could be pulled out of state and placed into another and make a run to that states semi-finals or state title game. While the teams in the Sunshine State may not have to play in the cold weather games that northern teams do, it is a misconception that Florida teams can not play physical football; many can line up and punch people in the mouth just as easily as spread it around.
    Total teams ranked: 5
    It may be parity or it may be a down year in Ohio with only five teams ranked at this point. Also, from what we have seen, there may not be a dominant team in the state. St. X played the hardest schedule in the country, but it already is eliminated from the playoffs. Moeller also was out early. Depending on how the next round goes, there may not be enough strength of schedule to keep more than five in the rankings come season's end.
    Florida gains another catagory, 6-0.
    Players in the Rivals 250
    Players in the Rivals 250
    Total in Rivals 250: 37
    Highest: No. 13 Matt Elam
    Florida is in rare air when it comes to producing college-ready football players. This season, the state boasts 37 players in the Rivals 250 and are headlined up Matt Elam. Elam is drawing comparisons to long time Eagles safety Brian Dawkins. Rivals.com analyst Barry Every is impressed at seeing Elam in person saying, "Elam is built like a tank, both in the upper and lower body. He looks like a beast and plays like a beast. "
    Total in Rivals 250: 10
    Highest: No. 12 Jordan Hicks
    Ohio has been a football hotbed for defensive talent and skill-position players for the better part of the last decade. This season is no different with Jordan Hicks leading the Ohio state rankings as the No. 12 player in the nation. Rivals.com compares Hicks to Baltimore Ravens linebacker Tavares Gooden and has very high praise. Barry Every says: "Hicks may be the best pass-rushing linebacker in the country."
    Florida sweeps the raw numbers categories, 9-0.
    Depth in-state
    Depth in-state
    While Florida does split their lowest two divisions into 2A/2B and 1A/1B it is hard to say this is a watered down product. There are teams in all levels that can compete nationally. From the highest level with Central, Northwestern, DeLand, and Dr. Phillips on through to 5A with Aquinas, lakeland, Venice, Plant and Ely. The 4A teams with Niceville, Dwyer, and Armwood could be rolled with 3A Booker T. Washington (who downed several 6A and 5A teams in 2009) and St. Augustine. The cluster of Class 2 schools Bolles, Pahokee, and Pace in 2B combined with Glades Central, Cocoa, Madison, and Godby in 2A would be an outstanding class in any state. Ohio, like many other states, is starting to see a watered-down mid-level class system. Having six classes is simply not needed for most states. That is why Ohio, in our opinion, needs to merge down. The depth of this state is hardly in question, but some may argue that having so many classes gives a false sense of just who is a power. The Division I section of Ohio is top notch and can play anywhere. Division II does not have much outside of Winton Woods and would benefit from a merger with Division III with Cardinal Mooney, Stuebenville, and St. Francis de Sales. The same can be said for Divsions IV and V. Combining the two would have Alter, Ursuline and Coldwater battling it out.
    Florida clinches the contest, 16-0.
    Out-of-state competition
    Out-of-state competition
    2009 Record for OOS games: 15-11-1
    Here is to hoping that Florida high school football doesn't start thinking that the competition in state is so good that it does not need to play out-of-state competition. This year was not very impressive and last year it did not look good with a lot of high-profile losses. With so few games out of state, it is tough to grade.
    2009 Record for OOS games: 88-62
    Ohio has one of the best reputations in the nation for tough football. The Herbstreit Classic always pits teams from all over the country against Ohio - and Ohio always does well. This season, Ohio is almost 30 games over .500 in out-of-state competition. The Buckeye State was 18-9 against Kentucky and 9-2 against Pennsylvania.
    Ohio get this catagory for its willingness to take on all comers. Florida stays up 16-7.
    Intangibles
    Intangibles
    Winning Class 6A down to 2A is impressive in Florida. There would be few states that can argue that their same sized class winner could have the same results in Florida. Reclassification from last year has made 2009 even better in-state. While there has been plenty of turnover atop the Ohio standings, all the teams that were there (Elder, Moeller, St. Ignatius, Glenville) are top-notch teams. Winning the Ohio Division I playoffs always is an honor. This year it seems as challenging and unpredicatble as ever.
    Florida flexes some muscle against a top-flight contender, 23-7.

    We're closing in on the Final Four.

    TAKE IT TO THE BOARDS: Talk about the Greatest State Debate on the national message board!




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